Kodali (002850): Performance in line with expectations Optimistic about the new energy industry boom cycle

Kodali (002850): Performance in line with expectations Optimistic about the new energy industry boom cycle
Introduction to this report: The performance report meets expectations.The new energy industry has entered a boom cycle. The company is bound to power battery manufacturers such as CATL, Panasonic, and LG, and its development 武汉夜生活网 will definitely reach a new level.Maintain “overweight” rating and maintain target price of 102.70 yuan. Investment Highlights: The performance is in line with expectations, maintaining the “overweight” rating and maintaining a target price of 102.70 yuan.Company performance report 2019 revenue 23.1.8 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.90%; net profit attributable to mother 2.3.9 billion, an increase of 190 in ten years.48%, in line with the performance forecast expectations (performance forecast 2).14?2.55 billion).The increase in performance is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the company’s productivity, at the same time the level of automation, the continuous improvement of product yield, and the significant improvement in profitability.Maintain profit forecast, revenue for 2019-2021 will be 23 respectively.84, 35.95, 51.480,000 yuan, net profit 2.28, 3.32, 4.7.1 billion yuan.Maintain “overweight” rating and maintain target price of 102.70 yuan. The continuous expansion of production capacity has promoted rapid growth in performance.The company’s revenue in 2019 is 23.18 billion (+15 compared to the same period last year).90%), net profit attributable to mother 2.390 thousand yuan (+190 compared with the same period last year).48%), which translates into Q4 single-quarter revenue and net profit of 6.19 billion (-5 years ago).50%), 0.9.2 billion (+139.50%).Among them, the growth rate of revenue mainly comes from capacity expansion and continuous increase in downstream demand; the growth rate of net profit is much faster than revenue because: ① capacity utilization, automation rate, and yield increase; ② impairment of the bad debts in the early period (20 millionAround), the oxidant flushed back (around 20 million).The company’s bases currently under construction mainly include Jiangsu Liyang, Fujian Ningde, Dalian, Huizhou, and the production capacity is constantly expanding. Key customer strategy and new energy boom cycle will push the company’s development to a new level.The company deeply binds domestic core customers such as CATL, BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, Eternal Lithium Energy, Xinwanda, Lishen, and also establishes strategic cooperative relationships with Panasonic, LG, Faurecia, etc.Driven by policies and auto companies represented by Tesla, global new energy vehicles have entered the boom cycle. The company is deeply bound with leading internal power battery companies, and sales of downstream new energy vehicles are gradually increasing (expected global new energy vehicles 2019-CAGR 31 in 2025.01%), the company’s development will definitely reach a new level. Catalysts: policy incentives, Tesla releases new product risks: New energy vehicle sales fall short of expectations; policy withdrawal

Valin Steel (000932): Second quarter profit increased

Valin Steel (000932): Second quarter profit increased

Investment Highlights Performance Summary: The company released the 2019 semi-annual performance forecast and reported that the company achieved operating income of 483.


8 ppm, an increase of 11 in ten years.

05%四川耍耍网 -11.

28%; net profit 32.


800 million, down 20 a year.


02%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies22.


100 million, down 32 a year.

  82% -35.

73%, equivalent to 0 EPS.


55 yuan; if excluding the effect of the six minority holdings of “Steel” held by the six debt-to-equity implementing agencies, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 24.


800 million US dollars, an average of 24 in ten years.

97% -27.

88%; QoQ growth in the second quarter: According to the company’s latest performance forecast, it is expected to achieve net profit in a single quarter in the second quarter.


1.3 billion, up 9 from the previous month.

32% -15.

70%, a ten-year average of 23.

34% -27.


According to the company’s voluntary disclosure of production and operation, the total sales volume of steel products from April to June was 496, equivalent to a net profit of 345-366 yuan per ton of steel in the second quarter, an average of 47 yuan from the first quarter, and a semi-annual average net profit of 327-337 steel.The average profit interval in 2018; the first half of the year fell by 147 yuan; the company’s profit level is better than the industry average: according to our calculations, cold rolled, hot rolled, rebar and plate 2019Q2 ton steel gross profit changes by 27 yuan, -100 Yuan, 53 Yuan and -16 Yuan, 2019H1 corresponds to a ton of steel gross margin 2018H1 intervals of 500 Yuan, 553 Yuan, 257 Yuan and 502 Yuan respectively.

The company’s ton-steel profitability ratio is relatively stable, and the transient average industry performance is mainly due to the following reasons: First, the comprehensive product structure, the company’s wide and thick plates, long products, cold and hot coils are relatively evenly distributed, and the other steel pipe accounts for about 8%.Downstream, of which the construction machinery and oil and gas downstream industries have performed better this year, which can hedge the downturn in the automotive industry; the second is that the product has a certain technical content, such as the widest plate sales of the industry in 2018, the gross profit per ton of steel is only lower than the firstAn 88 yuan, auto sheet is one of the few companies in the country that can produce ultra-high-strength steel. The representative product Usibor1500 is currently the highest strength auto sheet in China. The irreplaceability brought about by technical barriers will enhance its ability to resist the cycle.It is the company’s insistence on lean production, tapping potentials and increasing efficiency to increase its own safety margin; market-oriented debt-to-equity swap + overall listing of steel assets: According to the latest announcement, the company intends to use 4.

The price of 58 yuan / share was issued to 9 counterparties, including Hualing Group, Liangang Group, Henggang Group, CCB Finance, BOC Finance, Hunan Huahong, China Huarong, ABC Finance, Zhaoping Suida, etc. 19.

07 billion shares purchased Hualing Xianggang 13 which it holds in total.

68% equity, Valin Liangang 44.

17% equity, Valin Steel Pipe 43.

42% equity, and the company plans to use cash17.

310,000 yuan to purchase 100% equity of Hualing Energy Conservation held by Liangang Group.

After the completion of the transaction, the net profit of the shareholders affiliated with the listed company will further increase, replacing the financial burden of the listed company and optimizing the capital structure, promoting the synergy between steel production and energy-saving power generation, and reducing related party transactions; investmentSuggestion: As a leading steel company in Central and South China, the profitability of the company follows the industry fundamentals.

In the case that the industry demand is not pessimistic, in the future, the company will gradually reduce the financial burden on the company and gradually increase the profit level attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.

18 yuan, 1.

22 yuan, 1.29 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating; risk warning: high macroeconomic growth leads to demand pressure; supply-side pressure continues to increase.

Evergreen Group (002616) Company In-depth Study: Second Round of Expansion Only 10 + 3 Combined Heat and Power Projects to Be Put into Production

Evergreen Group (002616) Company In-depth Study: Second Round of Expansion Only 10 + 3 Combined Heat and Power Projects to Be Put into Production
The refined management has strong genes, two rounds of expansion into the field of environmental protection and thermal energy, and a large industrial heating development space company started with gas appliance production and sales. In 2004, it obtained the construction and franchise rights of a group waste incineration power plant in central Zhongshan. Project 2006After being put into production, it continued to run steadily and expanded to the third 佛山桑拿网 phase.The company’s first round of expansion finally ended in 2015, and a total of 5 biomass power generation projects were commissioned.  The company has strong refined management capabilities. Although the biomass plant is difficult to operate and maintain, the project has been operating steadily for many years. The unit utilization hours are 8000+, and the net profit of individual projects is about 2000-3000 million.  In 2018, the company entered the second round of expansion. The new projects are all biomass-based cogeneration in the industrial park and coal-fired cogeneration.At present, overall consumption upgrades, manufacturing upgrades, centralized development of the park, and industrial migration drive the prosperity of high-quality parks; most of the small coal-fired boilers are shut down under the pressure of environmental protection, and the park has a large demand for clean heat; and it supplies natural gas.High cost, biomass heating, ultra-low emission cost of coal has obvious advantages, strong heating demand, and large development space.  The combined heat and power business model is excellent, and heating can be profitable without supplementation. The company’s cash flow is optimized. ROE enhances the stable profitability of the biomass power generation project put into operation in the first round of expansion of the company.flow.The company’s second-round expansion of the newly built biomass biomass cogeneration project, in which the industrial heating heat price is high, no supplement, and heating is prepaid, so the project cash flow, ROE will also increase at the same time.The Mancheng project was put into operation in 2018 and the Pucheng project was put into operation in 2019. At present, there are 10 biomass cogeneration and 3 coal-fired cogeneration to be put into operation, and it is expected that it will enter the peak period of production in 2020.The company has better heating demand downstream of the projects under construction and supplements the company’s strong management and operation and maintenance capabilities. It is expected that the company’s growth space will be opened again after the new projects are put into production.  The intensive treatment of agricultural and forestry biomass is necessary, and resource utilization is the development trend of the industry. Agricultural and forestry biomass is a continuously generated biomass waste. Domestic agricultural and forestry biomass resources are equivalent to 1 billion tons of standard coal per year.Direct incineration will cause serious environmental and safety problems, and intensive treatment is of great significance for the construction of new rural areas.Biomass for agriculture and forestry is a very good fuel, which has the potential for resource utilization, and resource utilization is the development trend of the industry.Among the many ways of resource utilization, biomass cogeneration has commercial potential, strong comprehensive utilization benefits, and the state encourages development.At present, the overall biomass fueling ratio is only 13%, which is far lower than that in Europe. The fueling utilization is still developing space.  The company has a stable development, high management level, and clear growth. In the future, the company will enjoy steady development for many years. Many construction projects will be financed by debt. The asset-liability ratio will increase during the expansion period, but the debt ratio will gradually recover after the project is put into production.Incentives for outstanding employees of the company, from equity incentives to cash incentives, are increasingly flexible.Founders He Qiqiang and Mai Zhenghui directly and indirectly hold 60 shares.8%, the pledge ratio is only 17.15%.The company’s historical dividend ratio is high, and high dividends can be expected in the future.  Profit forecast: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 2 in 2019-2021.98, 4.81, 7.16 trillion, irrespective of the issuance and conversion of convertible bonds, the corresponding EPS is 0.40, 0.65, 0.97 yuan.Give the company 18x PE in 2020 with a target price of 12 yuan / share.Give “Buy” rating.  Risk Warning: The price of product raw 都市夜网 materials fluctuates, the project progress is less than expected, the convertible bond issuance fails, the biomass power generation compensation is cancelled, the industrial park accident, and the prosperity of the industrial park is down

Lingnan (002717): Improved cash flow diversified layout will benefit policy recovery and regional construction

Lingnan (002717): Improved cash flow diversified layout will benefit policy recovery and regional construction

Matters: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 52 in the first three quarters.

$ 7.1 billion, a ten-year average of 7.

73%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

500,000 yuan, 46 years ago.

71%, basic profit income is 0.

20 yuan / share.

The construction rate of newly-built cultural tourism projects has dropped, and the high base has targeted the decline in the first three quarters.

Since 2015, the company has developed the two major industries of ecological environment and cultural tourism through endogenous growth and extensional expansion. At the same time, it has strengthened the implementation of the strategy of water affairs and water environment.Environmental and cultural tourism orders quickly landed, the pan-entertainment PPP strategy continued to develop, and the company entered a high-speed development stage.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s revenue increased by 35 each year.

94%, 86.

11%, 85.

05%; net profit attributable to mothers increased by 55 each year.

29%, 95.

27%, 52.


In 2019, under the pressure of many industries such as the economic downturn, tightening external financing, and PPP project specifications, the operating rate of new projects in the cultural and tourism sector has dropped sharply, and the company achieved operating income of 57 in the first three quarters.

1.2 billion US dollars, on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, an annual extension of 7.


In terms of quarters, the single-quarter revenue growth rate of Q1 to Q3 2019 was 11 respectively.

39%, -14.

05% and -8.

84%, compared with the second quarter of 2019, the third quarter revenue decline has narrowed significantly.

Initially, the company realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company.

500,000 yuan, 46 years ago.

71%, mainly due to the decline in revenue and profitability.

Profitability improved and operating cash flow improved.

In the total reported, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 24.

37%, down by 1 every year.

94 pct, the company’s gross profit margin decreased or the main business’s gross profit margin decreased due to intensified market competition.

Expenses during the initial company period15.

91% (ten years +2.

99 pct).

The management expense ratio and financial expense ratio increased by 1, respectively.

37 and 1.


Finance costs increase by 38 each year.

34%, mainly due to the increase in project funding requirements leading to an increase in financing scale and corresponding increase in interest expenses.

The initial company’s net margin level has gradually decreased4.27 to 5.

98%, the decline in profitability was mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin and the increase in expense ratio during the period.

From the perspective of cash flow level, the company’s operating cash flow has improved, and the net operating cash flow is -1.

380,000 yuan, repeated less than the same period last year.

110,000 yuan, mainly due to the increase in business repayments of first-tier companies.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s monetary funds were 17.

US $ 6.6 billion, slightly higher than the same period of the previous year. Too much and too much capital in hand has consolidated the company’s development momentum and helped the rapid release of performance.

In terms of bond interest rate, the company’s 都市夜网 asset bond interest rate at the end of the period was 72.

76%, an increase of 0 from the end of 2019H1.

54 averages, an increase of 2. from the end of September 2018

The total of 79 was mainly due to the increase in short-term short-term borrowings and accounts payable.

The introduction of listed stock incentives, more order reserves, the future growth of the company is still worth looking forward to.

In 2018, the company launched a series of stock stock incentive plans, which are planned to grant 1493 to 217 middle managers and core business backbones of the company.

720,000 shares per share, the grant price is 6.

05 yuan.

According to the budget stock exercise conditions, it is estimated that the company’s net profit growth after deductions for 2018-2021 will be 60%, 30%, 30% and 20%, respectively.

From a speed perspective, the company’s performance growth rate will be reduced by less than 30% in 2019-2021. This is a relatively rapid growth based on a high base, and the quality of growth is improved.The proportion of the company’s cultural travel business may increase, and once again improve the quality of the company’s development.

In 2019, the company tilted its key resources to developed coastal areas such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, increasing the proportion of EPC projects and high-quality operating projects, and continued to obtain quality orders., Huangshan Xiuning and Lianzhou comprehensive improvement of water environment and other key projects.

According to the summary of the company announcement, the company has signed approximately 66 new major project orders since 2019.

6.6 billion, which is close to 80% of the company’s 2018 operating income. The company’s order reserve is relatively abundant, which provides a certain guarantee for the release of the company’s performance.

The company continues to diversify its layout. Under the pressure of the ecological environment construction industry, it will support the company’s overall profit growth during the downturn of the industry through the development of water affairs, water environment and cultural tourism business, which will help achieve higher quality growth in the future industry recovery period.To obtain higher performance flexibility.

Estimates and investment recommendations.

Due to the company’s revenue growth rate and period expenses increased, we adjusted the company’s profit forecast, and expect to achieve revenues of 89 in 2019-2021.

7.6 billion, 117.

58 ppm and 146.

9.8 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.

5%, 36.

9% and 20.

1%; net profit is 7 respectively.

2.2 billion, 9.

88 ppm and 118.

6.4 billion, the previous growth rate was -7.

3%, 36.

9% and 20.

1%; EPS are 0.

47 yuan, 0.

64 yuan and 0.

77 yuan, dynamic PE is 10 respectively.

0 times, 7.
3 times and 6.
1 times.

The company’s “second venture” strategy has been launched. At present, the company’s “big ecology + pan-amusement” layout covers the business sector layout of water management, water environment governance, ecological environment restoration, and cultural tourism. The synergy between the three business sectors is obvious, helping the companyRapid growth in the context of future industry recovery and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

The company has sufficient funds, improved operating cash flow, increased proportion of high-quality orders, and better growth.

Maintain the company’s “Buy-A” rating with a target price of 7 yuan, corresponding to about 15 times PE in 2019.

Risk reminders: changes in PPP policies, rising interest rates, high receivables, market adjustments, shareholders’ reductions and other risks.

Xinhua Wenxuan (601811): Demographic Dividend Drives Demand, Resource Integration, and Quality Guarantee

Xinhua Wenxuan (601811): Demographic Dividend Drives Demand, Resource Integration, and Quality Guarantee

Core Views Xinhua Wenxuan is the leading cultural enterprise in Southwest China, and its profitability has continued to increase. Xinhua Wenxuan is the first domestic publishing and distribution group to be listed on the “A + H” dual board.

The company’s retail outlets cover the whole province, and the retail outlets of the supermarket spread throughout the country.

The company’s revenue has risen steadily, and the growth rate of non-attributed net profit has continued to increase.

  2016-2019H1 company revenue growth rate is higher than 11%, 2018 revenue reached 81.

8.7 billion.

Benefiting from the company’s main business such as mass publishing, reading services and education services, the efficiency of its main businesses has continued to increase.

twenty 杭州夜网论坛 three%.

  The demographic dividend continues to drive demand, and digital transformation boosts revenue. 1) Xinhua Wenxuan is the only textbook supplementary publisher in Sichuan Province. The textbook supplementary income is greatly affected by the local population.

After the country opened the “separate second child” policy, the growth of the new population continued to extend the demographic dividend; 2) The national basic tax exemption policy was continued, and Sichuan ‘s support for publishing companies was maintained; 3) The regional barriers to the teaching aids business are obvious, but the general book marketThe cross-region competition is fierce, the publishing and distribution companies on the right are of similar size, and the industry structure still needs to be integrated. 4) Digital reading is being favored by more and more readers. The digital reading market continues to expand. The distribution channels are steadily advancing, and resource integration guarantees quality  1) The channel of Xinhua Wenxuan’s supplementary subscription market is solid, and the “combined compilation of the three subjects” brings channel supplements.

The company actively expands the Internet market and establishes “Wenxuan.com” and “September.com”, which has a first-mover advantage.

At the same time, Xinhua continues to expand the scale of logistics to support the expansion of Internet sales channels.

To ensure the continuous expansion of Internet channel business; 2) The company uses its own brand to attract high-quality resources, continue to develop product publishing capabilities, and the market share of bestsellers continues to increase.

  Covered for the first time, giving the company an “overweight” rating. We expect the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 to be 90.

01, 97.

96, 106.

4.3 billion; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 11.

28, 12.

80, 14.

31 ppm; EPS for 2019-2021 is 0.

91, 1.

04, 1.

16 yuan / share, corresponding to the current PE of 13.

05, 11.

50, 10.

29 times.

Considering that the demographic dividend continued to drive the demand for teaching aids, the company attracted high-quality resources to continuously improve product quality, and for the first time, it gave an “overweight” rating.

  Risk warning: policy supervision is becoming more severe, and education and marketing channels maintain risks; costs continue to rise; competition for digital publishing is intensifying.

Mei Nian Health (002044) Incident Review: Dating Alibaba Strategic Investment Coordinated Development of Preventive Medicine

Mei 天津夜网 Nian Health (002044) Incident Review: Dating Alibaba Strategic Investment Coordinated Development of Preventive Medicine
Event: On October 27, the company announced that the controlling shareholder Shanghai Tianyi Assets and Concert Parties and other shareholders intend to transfer the company to Ali Network, Hangzhou Xintou and Shanghai Qijun5.58%, 5.24%, 5.34% of shares, totaling 16.16%, the transfer price is 12.01 yuan / share.The share transfer will not cause changes to the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company. The blockbuster date of Ali’s strategy is injected, and Ali related has jumped to become the second largest shareholder company’s controlling shareholder Tianyi Assets, Tianyi Holdings, Shanghai Meixin, Gao Wei, Xu Ke, Zunyi Dazhong, and Zhongwei Growth.16% of the shares of the Ali department.Alibaba Networks is an Alibaba-affiliated enterprise, and is also the controlling shareholder and concerted action person of Hangzhou Xintou, while Shanghai Qijun’s general partner is Shanghai Yunfeng Venture Capital Investment Management Center.After the transfer is completed, the actual controller Yu Rong and his concerted parties have a total shareholding ratio of 22.88%, Ali Networks and its concerted parties will become the company’s second largest shareholder, and Ali related fund Shanghai Lin Jun will become a shareholder holding more than 5% of the shares. Join hands with Ali to coordinate the future ecology of preventive medicine. We expect the company to date the Ali department as a strategic investor, or will cooperate in the following areas to jointly explore and deploy the future ecosystem of preventive medicine: (1) Strengthen the construction of information systems: enhance the United StatesAnnual digital health, intelligent layout, strengthening the establishment and use of large health databases (2) Strengthening channel drainage construction: Or cooperate with Ali Health, relying on Ali to connect to the C-end traffic platform, open up the online and offline preventive medicine ecosystem layout, and improveThe strength and influence of Meinian’s health brand, and the successful transformation can be expected to strengthen quality control, enhance customer experience, and promote health to usher in an inflection year. The company strengthened internal control construction, quality management, upholding the principles of improving medical quality and service experience, and implementing flow of people.Control and mainly promote the “1 + X” package that meets the characteristics of consumers. Through the single-check low-price package arrangement, the overall customer unit price and gross profit margin can be changed.19Q3 single-quarter operating income of 26.3.6 billion, an increase of 15 over the same period last year.58%, 19Q1 and Q2 exceeded the growth rate of 4.21% and 2.24%, revenue improvement has begun to appear.At the same time, the appointment of heavy strategic partners this time can alleviate the market’s concerns about the higher pledge rate of the actual controller. Investment advice and profit forecast The company is the leader of the National Physical Examination Center. The track is of high quality, and the C-end traffic giant Ali Department is strong and strong. The business transition can be expected, and the future preventive medicine ecology is optimistic.We expect to achieve revenues of 97 in 19-21.27/121.59/151.9.9 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 9.71/12.14/15.32 trillion, EPS is 0.26/0.32/0.41 yuan / share, corresponding to 49/39/31 times the PE, giving 50 times the PE in 2020, maintaining the target price to 16.00, maintaining the “Buy” level. Risk reminders: Newly established medical examination center, the progress of mergers and acquisitions is not up to expectations; the risk of medical disputes; the risk of goodwill impairment.

Boss Appliances (002508) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Out of adjustment Boss Appliances stabilizes and rebounds

Boss Appliances (002508) 2018 Annual Report and 2019 First Quarterly Report Comments: Out of adjustment Boss Appliances stabilizes and rebounds
Investment Highlights Recently, the company announced its 18-year annual report and 19-year quarterly report.The company’s operating income for the 18 years was 74.2.5 billion / + 5.81%, net profit attributable to mother 14.7.4 billion / + 0.85%, gross margin 53.5% /-0.2pp.The net interest rate is 20.0% /-0.8 pages, basic income 1.55 yuan, proposed dividend 0.80 yuan; 19Q1 achieved operating income of 16.60 ppm / + 4.30%, net profit attributable to mother 3.20 ppm / + 5.84%, gross margin 54.8% / + 2.5pp., Net interest rate 19.5% / + 0.5pp.In terms of different products, the operating income of smoke stove consumer products that accounted for 85% of the company’s revenue in 18 years was +5 respectively.0%, -1.7% and +2.3%, accounting for 9% of the company’s revenue for new categories of ovens, steamers, dishwashers and water purifiers for a total of 18 years +10.0%, +37.8%, +54.6% and +131.0%. Affected by real estate, the industry has undergone in-depth adjustment for 18 years. The company has maintained growth for 18 years, and its growth rate stabilized in 19Q1.18 years of limited industry demand (Aowei Cloud Network data: 18 years of smoke stove consumption retail sales growth rate were -16.6%, -11.5% and -15.1%), the company’s revenue continued to grow, of which the growth rate of main categories led the industry, and new categories of products grew rapidly.19Q1 benefited from the recovery in industry demand, and the company’s revenue growth rate stabilized. The growth rates of 18Q1 to 19Q1 were 16 in each quarter.9%, 3.8%, 6.0%, 0.1% and 4.3%.In 19 years, the real estate industry benefited from the rapid development of new products, and the company’s revenue grew faster than last year, with a growth rate of 5% -10%. Among them, stoves increased by 5% and embedded growth increased by 30%. Gross profit margin declined slightly in 18 years, improved in 19Q1, and the sales expense ratio increased in 18 and 19Q1 under competitive pressure.In terms of gross profit margin, in 18 years, due to the decline in market demand, the increase in raw material prices and the increase in the proportion of engineering channels with low gross profit margins, the gross profit margin decreased by -0.2pp., But the range was lower than expected; the price of raw materials benefited from the decline in 19Q1 (stainless steel and cold-rolled plate prices fell by 5% and 6%), and the gross profit margin increased by 2.5pp.; In 19, it is expected that the price of raw materials and the increase in tax rates will be reduced, and the gross profit margin is expected to decrease slightly last year.In terms of expense ratio, the 18-year sales expense ratio increased by 1 due to advertising.8 pages, excluding R & D management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are basically stable; 19Q1 sales expense ratio increased by 2.4pp.It is expected that the industry’s general promotion efforts will increase; the sales expense ratio in 19 will be slightly improved compared to 18 years, and the management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are expected to be stable. The sinking of the channel is advancing steadily, and the refined decoration of the project will become an income growth point.In terms of sales sinking, the company continued to expand the development of third- and fourth-tier cities, adding 68 city companies and building 535 specialty stores. It is expected to build 300 new stores in 19 years. The brand name will continue to be positioned and the price will be lowered to expand the low-endTier sales.In terms of engineering channels, the growth trend of the proportion of refined decoration is determined. The growth rate in 2018 is about 40%. It is expected that the growth rate in 19Q1 will be about 60%. It is expected that the revenue growth rate in 19 years can reach 50%. Profit forecast and investment advice: Kitchen appliances is the home electronics industry with the tightest post-real estate cycle. Recently, real estate has picked up. Kitchen appliances have recovered from both industry and company data.As one of the high-end leading companies in the industry, Boss Electric has strong product competitiveness and improved profitability in a quarter.Specifically, the 成都桑拿网 reduction, the company is still facing a situation of stable demand and increased competition, the average price of products is hindered, and there are promotional pressures in the low and mid-range; the transformation, the company actively sink channels to expand customer acquisition capabilities, tax and fee reduction, home appliance subsidiesThe restoration of real estate will benefit the company to varying degrees.To sum up, real estate is the most important factor affecting kitchen appliances. Under the central tone of the central government’s insistence that it only stays on the market, it is difficult to have a jump in demand. It is expected that the company’s operations will remain stable.We have raised our profit forecast and expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.76, 2.00 and 2.26 yuan, closing prices on April 26 corresponding to 杭州桑拿 PE were 16.5, 14.4 and 12.8 times. Risk reminder: The property market, which has been damaged by the real estate recovery, continues to be sluggish, competition in the kitchen appliance industry is intensifying, and raw material prices are changing.

Non-reverse repurchase for up to 7 trading days

Non-reverse repurchase for up to 7 trading days

About 7 trading days have not reversed the repurchase liquidity and has a high levelHigh level, no reverse repurchase operation on that day.

This is also the seventh consecutive trading day per second.

  Lu Zheng, chief economist at Industrial Bank and chief economist at Huafu Securities, told the Securities Daily reporter that there were 110 billion reverse repurchases due to open market operations this week. Cross-season liquidity faces a certain impact, but considerBy the end of the month, the intensity of fiscal expenditure will increase, and the transition probability will continue to “cut peaks and fill valleys” according to the fiscal expenditure situation, and the capital is expected to remain stable as a whole.

  Dongfang Jincheng’s chief macro analyst Wang Qing said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that due to local debt payments, tax periods and other factors, the market interest rate represented by DR007 has risen to the policy guidance rate (period is 7Days) reverse repurchase rate), and continue to stay in the open market for a long time.

Initial crackdowns on precautionary measures Market entities have formed illusions of liquidity and unilateral liquidity easing expectations, restricting financial institutions from managing liquidity risk management.

At the same time, this move in advance will also help maintain market liquidity at a reasonable level of abundance without entering a state of excessive abundance.

At the end of the current extended quarter, the increase in liquidity resulting from fiscal expenditure is intertwined with various factors such as bank assessments at the end of the quarter. Market liquidity will generally be in a relatively tight situation. It is possible to gradually resume small reverse repurchases in time to stabilize market capital.

  Foreign Exchange Judge Wang Youxin of the Bank of China Institute of International Finance told the Securities Daily reporter yesterday that domestic liquidity is still relatively abundant and there is no need to initiate a reverse repo for the time being.

In addition, the current growth rate of social finance and M1 has stabilized, the credit crunch has eased, and the overall supply of money is stable.

It can not only support the real economy, but also not cause the phenomenon of “flooding flood”.

In the future, monetary policy should grasp the strength of open market operations, learn to take the balance beam, improve the forward-looking, timely and relative operation, and at the same time aim at preventing and controlling financial risks, avoiding financial bubbles and disorderly development of corporate leverage and resistance.

  Wang Qing said that the recent gradual suspension of reverse repurchase, the market interest rate center has increased higher than the previous period, does not mean that the current “wide currency” policy orientation has been adjusted, and “wide currency” to support “wide credit” is still preliminary for future adjustmentsPolicy spindle.

As 北京夜网 a result, the market interest rate center will continue to guide policy interest rates to fluctuate slightly.

The reason behind this is that there is a certain downward pressure on the current growth rate of the national economy. Macroeconomic policies are still needed to increase counter-cyclical adjustments, and monetary policies are fine-tuned in a loose direction.

At the same time, the Fed stopped raising interest rates and minimized the pressure to devalue the RMB. It only fully moderated monetary conditions internally, and used timely and quantitative methods such as deposit reserve ratios and interest rates to guide financial institutions to expand the scope of credit offerings.

  Wang Qing said that in the future, interest rates will gradually keep the market capital in a reasonable and sufficient state, support “wide credit” with “wide currency”, and focus on opening up monetary policy channels to guide the moderate decline in long-term interest rates.

At the same time, in order to prevent market participants from forming a “liquidity illusion” and unilateral expectations, the continued growth of market interest rates and gradually lowering the policy-guided interest rate (gradual transformation into a seven-day reverse repurchase rate) are also difficult to continue.

In addition, under the circumstances that the growth rate of deposits has significantly exceeded the background of the growth rate of loans, the two to three reductions will be implemented in the future to support banks in increasing the rate of credit to the real economy.

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Incident Comment: EIA of Phase II of Ethylene Project Announces New Project Construction Continues to Advance

Wanhua Chemical (600309) Incident Comment: EIA of Phase II of Ethylene Project Announces New Project Construction Continues to Advance

Events: 1. According to the website of Yantai Eco-Environment Bureau, Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd.’s polyurethane industry chain integration-ethylene second-stage project environmental impact assessment was first announced. The second-stage ethylene project uses naphtha and mixed butane asRaw materials, through 120 micron / year ethylene cracking device to produce screws, aromatics and downstream products, mainly including ethylene cracking, cracked gasoline hydrogenation, aromatics extraction, butadiene, high density polyethylene, low density polyethylene, thermoplastic bodies /Elastomer, polypropylene and other devices, as well as supporting public works and auxiliary production facilities.

2. Starting from January 2020, Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. listed the aggregated MDI distribution market in China at 13,500 yuan / ton (down 3,000 yuan / ton from December 2019), and the direct market price was 14,000 yuan / ton.(2000 yuan / ton lower than the price in December 2019); pure MDI listing price 18,700 yuan / ton (3300 yuan / ton lower than the price in December 2019).

Viewpoint: The second-phase ethylene project is progressing smoothly, and the company’s anti-risk capability will be further enhanced after the production is completed. The first-phase project is a 100-ton / year ethylene complex, a 40-ton / year polyvinyl chloride plant, and a 15-ton / year ethylene oxide plant.45 slurry / year LLDPE unit, 30/65 scale / year cyclic diol / styrene unit, 5 toluene / year butadiene unit, etc. The main raw materials and butane of the first phase of the project are mainly from Middle Eastern producers and the United StatesExporter, although Wanhua Chemical has been involved in the global procurement and trading of propane since 2013, becoming the first company in China to directly deliver FOB supply agreements with Middle Eastern producers on propane products, which can ensure the stability of raw materialsSupply, but the purchase of raw materials will still be affected by fluctuations in international LPG prices and exchange rate changes.

The second-phase ethylene project uses naphtha and mixed butane as raw materials. The purpose is to balance the cost of oil and gas. At the same time, more blocks of naphtha will emerge, which will be beneficial to the expansion of the industrial chain.

The two lines of naphtha cracking and fragmentation and butane cracking can hedge risks and help obtain stable profitability.

The return of the MDI listing 南京夜网论坛 price to the market’s normal adjustment for the past two years. The difference between the pure MDI listing price and the market price is in the range of -7700 yuan to 7700 yuan, and the difference between the aggregate MDI listing price and the market price is -2700 yuan to 5950 yuan.The range fluctuates, but both pure MDI and aggregate MDI have several times of cross-listing prices and market prices. After the market price changes, the company will adjust to make the listing price and market price closer.

The listed price has a certain guiding effect on the market, but it cannot change the market price on a large scale. Therefore, we believe that this price adjustment is the normal adjustment of the company after the listed price is higher than the market price.

According to the company’s announcement on October 15, 2019, Wanhua Ningbo MDI Phase I device (40 digits 西安耍耍网 / year) will stop on October 26, 2019, and it is expected to be repaired for about 55 days; MDI Phase II device (80 digits / year)Parking will begin on November 15, 2019, and it is expected to be repaired for about 55 days.

According to Zhuochuang Information, Chongqing BASF MDI devices (40 digits / year) will be parked and repaired from November 29, 2019 to January 6, 2020.

The period from November to December is a period of centralized maintenance for manufacturers. With the decrease in domestic supply, the MDI inventory has decreased. Combined with the recent international oil prices that have continued to rise slightly, it is expected that the actual market price of MDI will rise steadily in the future.

Earnings forecast and investment rating We estimate that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be 630/680/820 billion US dollars, with a long-term growth of 3%.

92% / 7.

94% / 20.

59%, net profit attributable to mothers was 105/125 / 15.1 billion, an increase of 1.

08% / 19.

16% / 20.

8%, corresponding EPS is 3 respectively.



81 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 14/11.

6/10 times, earnings forecast remains unchanged.

The company is a leader in the polyurethane industry, and its future growth is highly certain.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risks indicate that the construction progress of the project is less than expected, and the continuous decrease in demand for polyurethane results in the risk of lower prices.

Dongfang Cable (603606) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Submarine Cable Continues High Growth, Land Cable Gross Margin Quickly Turns to Sea-Land Advancement Strategy and Initial Results

Dongfang Cable (603606) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Submarine Cable Continues High Growth, Land Cable Gross Margin Quickly Turns to Sea-Land Advancement Strategy and Initial Results

Matters: On the evening of October 25, 2019, the company released the 2019 third quarter report, and the company’s revenue for the first three quarters was 25.

68ppm, an increase of 17 per year.

32%, achieving a net profit of 3.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 162% in ten years.

Comment: The average value of submarine cable and land cable business shows a high growth trend, and the profitability of submarine cable continues to exceed expectations.

In the first three quarters, the company’s submarine cable revenue totaled 10.

1.5 billion, accounting for 39% of total revenue.


According to our forecast, submarine cable revenue was approximately 4 in the third quarter.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 27% from the second quarter.

In fact, the company’s land cable revenues have shown a year-on-year growth trend, and in the third quarter we estimate that the revenue will be about 6.

400 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of more than 22%, the total revenue in the first three quarters of about 1.5 billion US dollars, a year of continued growth.

In terms of profitability, the company’s gross profit margin reached 23 in the third quarter.

86, down 2 in the second quarter of the year.

32 units, mainly because 武汉夜网论坛 the gross margin of 500kV orders in the second quarter significantly increased the company’s comprehensive gross margin in the second quarter.

We estimate that the gross profit margin of the company ‘s submarine cable remained above 40% in the third quarter, exceeding the first quarter of this year and exceeding market expectations.

On the whole, the company’s third quarterly report reflects the company’s submarine cable capacity, profitability continues to exceed market expectations, and it is expected to maintain a better level in the fourth quarter, thereby achieving market expectations.

The profitability of land cable has rebounded substantially, and the strategy of “sea and land advancement” has begun to bear fruit.

According to our calculations, the gross profit margin of the company ‘s land cable in the third quarter has recovered to more than 10%, which is significantly better than the situation of less than 8% before 2018.

In 2018, in response to the rapid explosion of submarine cable orders, the submarine cable production line no longer produced medium and high voltage land cables, which resulted in the company’s gradual changes in the medium and high voltage land cable throughput, the order structure deteriorated, and the hair improved.

In 2019, the company followed the strategy of “gathering the land and the sea” and, while rapidly developing the submarine cable business, further expanded the land cable business to grab market share.

We believe that under the overall economic downward trend, after years of reshuffle at the bottom of the cable industry, the cable industry has entered a transition period where the concentration of the industry has increased again. The company relies on the profitability of the submarine cable business to complement the land cable business and is expected to expand at the bottom of the industryThe market share further expanded and strengthened the land cable business.

The business of the Great Ocean Segment is in the ascendant, and the company’s three-year business growth can be expected.

At present, offshore wind power has entered the initial stage of the development of the industry’s forward cycle. Although there are occasional rumors of policy adjustments, we still believe that policy adjustments will ensure the smooth and orderly development of the industry.

At present, the company’s new orders in 2019 are close to 1.7 billion, and orders in hand exceed 2.5 billion. In 2020, submarine cable revenue will increasingly exceed 2019.

At the same time, the company’s umbilical cable and offshore engineering business are about to enter a period of heavy volume growth, which will gradually increase the company’s entry into a three-year high-speed growth period.

Earnings forecasts, estimates and investment ratings.

In the third quarter, the company’s revenue and product gross profit margin exceeded expectations. We raised the company’s product gross profit margin and revenue.

What do we expect in 2019?
The company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2021 can be realized4.

38, 5.


1.4 billion (previous forecast 3.

55, 4.

75, 6.

4.6 billion), corresponding to the current expected PE of 16.

8, 13.

2, 10.
3 times.
According to land cable, submarine cable, and offshore engineering, we give 15, 25, and 15 times the estimated calculations, and give a comprehensive assessment22.

32 times, adjust target price to 14.

9 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.

Risk warning: the company’s production expansion progress is less than expected, and the offshore wind power compensation policy changes.